Demographic Winter – UPSC GS1 Micro Notes Format
Definition:
- Demographic winter refers to a sustained decline in fertility rates leading to population aging and shrinkage.
- Coined to describe socio-economic consequences of below-replacement fertility (TFR < 2.1).
Global Trends Indicating a Shift:
- Europe, Japan, South Korea, and now China witnessing negative population growth.
- UN data (2023): 60% of world population lives in countries with sub-replacement fertility.
- India’s TFR: Declined to 2.0 (NFHS-5), approaching replacement level.
Consequences:
- Shrinking workforce, increased dependency ratio.
- Pressure on pension, healthcare, and social security systems.
- Reduced economic growth potential.
Contrasting Trends:
- Africa and parts of South Asia still have high fertility rates.
- Migration may offset aging in some countries temporarily.
Conclusion:
- The world, especially developed and emerging economies, is gradually moving toward demographic winter.
- Calls for policy focus on family support systems, immigration, and productive aging.
